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China's BRI Gamble

The Rise and Fall of BRI

Once a symbol of China’s rising power, the BRI is now facing some serious roadblocks. What went wrong?

Chinese President Xi Jinping during a videoconference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in December 2022. As the architect of the Belt and Road Initiative, his leadership now navigates the project through a period of re-evaluation and increasing global scrutiny. Attribution: Presidential Executive Office of Russia / Creative Commons Attribution 4.0




A few years ago, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was making headlines everywhere. It was huge. Trillions of dollars. Dozens of countries. Roads, railways, ports, and pipelines from Asia to Africa, Europe, and beyond. China called it a win-win for global development. Some saw it as the modern Silk Road.

But fast forward to today, and things look... different.

So, what happened to this big dream?


The problem with BRI

When China launched the BRI in 2013, it had one clear goal: build global infrastructure and open up new trade routes. For many developing countries, it felt like a blessing. They finally had a partner willing to fund massive infrastructure projects without the usual strings attached.


But here's the problem: many of those projects weren’t well thought out. Some were rushed. Others were driven more by political interests than actual needs on the ground. And many countries began piling up huge debts they couldn’t repay.


Debt, Delays, and Disappointment

Take Sri Lanka, for example. The Hambantota Port—built with Chinese loans—failed to generate enough revenue. The result? Sri Lanka had to hand it over to a Chinese company on a 99-year lease.


Other countries like Kenya, and Zambia have also faced financial stress due to BRI projects. Delays, cost overruns, and lack of transparency became common complaints. In some cases, local communities even protested, saying the projects did more harm than good.


China's Shifting Tone

Beijing seems to be learning from these mistakes. The ambitious tone of the early BRI years is now more cautious. China is no longer throwing money around like before. It’s focusing more on "small but smart" projects and cleaner, greener investments.


At the same time, the world is changing. The COVID-19 pandemic, the global economic slowdown, and rising US-China tensions have all made countries more careful about getting too close to China.


A New Phase, Not the End?

So, is the BRI dead? Not quite.

Think of it as entering a new chapter. China is adjusting its strategy. It’s moving from grand mega-projects to more sustainable, digital, and climate-friendly investments. It's also trying harder to work with international organizations and follow global rules.


But the golden days of the BRI as a “game-changer” for global development? Those may be over.


What It Means for the World

The BRI was never just about roads and railways. It was about power, influence, and reshaping the global order.

Its slowdown shows that even the most powerful nations can stumble when they try to do too much, too fast. For developing countries, the lesson is clear: infrastructure is great, but only when it truly serves local needs and doesn’t trap them in debt.

And for the rest of the world, it’s a reminder that the global balance of power is always shifting, but not always in the way we expect.


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