Is Trump using the "Madman Theory"?

Image: Donald Trump at Hershey PA on 12 15 2016 Victory Tour x 02.jpg by Michael Vadon licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0). Available at Wikimedia Commons.

Trump’s Madman Diplomacy: Bluff, Bully, or Brilliant?

When Donald Trump speaks, the world listens — not because they always believe him, but because they’re never quite sure what he’ll say next. One moment he’s talking about buying Greenland, the next he’s suggesting the U.S. should take over the Panama Canal or make Canada the 51st state. It sounds absurd — and maybe that’s the point. This isn’t just random chaos. It’s part of a deliberate strategy known as the Madman Theory, and Trump has turned it into his signature move on the world stage.

That’s Donald Trump on the world stage.

Since returning to the White House in 2025, Trump’s been playing global politics like it’s a high-stakes poker game. He’s unpredictable, loud, and unapologetically bold. But here’s the real kicker: a lot of it might be part of a decades-old strategy called the Madman Theory.

Yes, that’s a real thing.

What is the Madman Theory?

Let’s rewind to the 1960s. Richard Nixon, the U.S. president during the Vietnam War, had a wild idea: act crazy enough, and your enemies will back down out of fear. He called it the Madman Theory. Nixon even told his chief of staff that he wanted the North Vietnamese to think he was nuts enough to press the nuclear button at any moment. If they believed that, they’d come begging for peace.

Spoiler: it didn’t work. The Vietnamese didn’t flinch, and the U.S. lost the war.

But Trump? He’s giving the theory a second shot—with a vengeance.

Trump’s World

Since taking office again, Trump has stormed into diplomacy like a wrecking ball. He came back to power with a long list of personal and political grudges, convinced that America’s been too soft for too long.

Before he even took the oath, he was tossing out ideas like invading Greenland, seizing the Panama Canal, and making Canada the 51st U.S. state. Sound ridiculous? That’s the point. The Madman Theory thrives on unpredictability.

And now that he’s actually in office again? He’s doubling down.

In just the first two weeks, Trump responded to every minor irritation with massive threats. Colombia didn’t want to take back deported migrants? Boom—Trump threatened tariffs. Canada and Mexico weren’t stopping drug trafficking? Slam—more tariffs.

The result? Colombia folded quickly, and Canada and Mexico struck a deal to delay penalties.

So, does that mean the strategy is working?

The Dangerous Game of Bluffing

Let’s be clear, the Madman Theory only works if people believe the threats are real.

Think about bluffing in poker again. If you bluff too often, people catch on. They stop folding. They start calling your bluffs. And then? You lose—big time.

That’s the risk Trump is taking on the global stage. His constant threats and sudden policy swings might get short-term wins—but they also create long-term uncertainty. Sure, some countries back down. But others, like China, are playing hardball too. While both sides recently agreed to lower some tariffs, it’s less a sign of stable progress and more a pause in an ongoing tug-of-war. The unpredictability still hangs heavy over the talks.

This is where things get scary. Trump’s style isn’t just bluster. Sometimes, he really follows through.

Take Ukraine, for example.

The Trump Zelenskyy clash

In February 2025, Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House. They were supposed to discuss a deal on Ukraine’s minerals and peace negotiations with Russia.

But the conversation quickly turned into something out of a Netflix drama.

Trump even said to Zelenskyy that “You’re gambling with World War III.”

And then? Just days later, Trump suspended U.S. military support to Ukraine.

So no, it wasn’t a bluff. It was a calculated play, part of a larger game. Trump is using bluffing not just on enemies—but on allies too.

That’s what makes his version of the Madman Theory different from Nixon’s. Trump is unpredictable with everyone.

Allies or Adversaries? Everyone’s on Edge

Most U.S. presidents have bluffed and threatened their enemies to win peace or power. But Trump? He’s going after friends too.

He’s threatened to pull out of NATO, scaring Europe with the idea that the U.S. might not protect them if Russia attacks. That kind of uncertainty makes world leaders nervous—and that’s exactly the point.

Political scientist Roseanne McManus says this kind of “crazy” behavior can actually be useful when carrying out very costly threats. If people think you’re unhinged enough to do the unthinkable, they might just back down.

But here’s the catch: over time, if you don’t follow through, people stop taking you seriously. And if you do follow through, you might trigger real-world disasters—like trade wars or military conflicts.

It’s a delicate balance, and Trump’s walking a tightrope.

Official White House photo, Public domain, from "Donald Trump Fargo ND 2018.jpg", taken on June 27, 2018."

Trump’s Madness: Act or Reality?

So, is Trump really using the Madman Theory, or is this just his personality?

That’s the million-dollar question.

McManus and other political scientists say it’s hard to tell. Trump might be deliberately playing the madman—or he might just be genuinely impulsive. Maybe it’s both. Maybe he knows people think he’s unpredictable and uses that reputation to his advantage.

It’s a powerful tactic—until it backfires.

When Trump uses this strategy too often, it starts to lose its shock value. Repeated threats, constant tariff announcements, and wild ideas (like relocating Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan) make world leaders tune out. And once that happens, the bluff is dead.

The cost of chaos

There’s also a very real economic price to pay.

Trump’s tariffs and trade threats has introduced uncertainty into the global economy. While some industries might benefit from protective measures, others face higher costs and disrupted supply chains. The overall impact is complex, with both winners and losers, but persistent unpredictability can dampen investment and economic growth.

Inflation goes up. Jobs go down. The economy takes a hit.

All because one man is trying to convince the world he’s crazy enough to do anything.

Final Thoughts: Genius or Joker?

The truth is, Trump’s madman diplomacy is either a brilliant strategy or a dangerous gamble. Maybe both.

He’s rewriting the rulebook of global politics. He’s bluffing, bullying, and bartering all at once. And while some countries are still falling for it, others are starting to push back.

In the end, Trump’s success depends on whether he can keep people guessing.

If he follows through just enough, he might maintain his reputation for madness—and keep winning.

But if he overplays his hand, the world might call his bluff.

And when that happens, we could all end up paying the price.

Because in this game of global poker, the stakes aren’t just money or power.

They’re peace, stability, and lives.

What do you think? Is Trump a genius strategist or just rolling the dice with the world? Share your thoughts in the comments below.